The US-Iran memorandum signed in Islamabad is being read in Moscow in two seemingly contradictory ways. The loud version treats it as an American capitulation in the war — confirmation that Washington tried to topple an authoritarian regime but failed, and ended up in a more complicated position than before the war: a sign that US power is in decline despite its military might. The quieter, more realist version acknowledges that stepping back is itself a smart move to correct a mistake, and proof of flexibility — ending the war is in any case better than a militarised destabilisation of the region with nuclear risks.

Moscow's real hope is that a closed Iran file frees Trump to turn back to Ukraine — on terms Russia can shape. The contest with Kyiv and the Europeans for his ear has accordingly been accelerating, with the latter handed a chance during the G7 in Évian to explore an opening and tilt Trump their way. However, much more will depend not on the outcome of this battle but on how Russian-American contacts develop in the coming weeks, how the situation on the front line changes, and whether November's US mid-term elections affect the prospects for resuming peace talks. We explain what Putin is set to undertake over these months.

That external picture sits on top of a domestic one that pulls in a single direction: pressure, not concession. A weeks-long campaign against Russian refineries had already pushed fuel shortages across more than fifty regions; the largest drone strike on Moscow since the war began, on 18 June, sharpened a crisis that was well under way — real strain, but strain the Kremlin reads as a reason to escalate, not to soften its demands.

The same logic of pressure runs inward. A budget-code amendment pushed through the Duma in a single sitting hands the executive freedom to spend and borrow without returning to parliament; the Central Bank, meanwhile, faces unusually open lobbying to make money cheaper. Decision-making is concentrating, as the fiscal room narrows.

The clearest signal of where the system is heading may be the arrest of StPetersburg mogul Ilya Traber — a shadowy figure tied to #Putin's early career. The point is not the man but the precedent: personal connection no longer guarantees protection, and with the security services ascendant, the once-untouchable are now exposed.

Against that backdrop, the unblocking of Roblox stands out as a rare concession to public mood ahead of September's elections — we answer whether it marks a pre-election "thaw" or an exceptional decision, based on the specific nuances.

The polls capture the tension precisely: his rating decline has halted at a slightly lower level, while fear of the drone attacks climbs fast towards the centre of public attention.

If you follow how Russia actually makes decisions under pressure — where it bends, where it hardens, and why — the full analysis is in R.Politik Bulletin No. 12 (186).