R.Politik

Russia's 81st Victory Day was the most tense of any in the post-Soviet era. The drastically reduced parade — no hardware on Red Square for the first time in 19 years, a sharply shrunken foreign turnout — was driven by a real fear that Ukraine could disrupt the celebrations. Moscow warned Kyiv of devastating strikes on decision-making centres, briefed Washington, Beijing and New Delhi on the consequences of any disruption, and pushed for the Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire.

The episode exposed the structural bind #Putin is now in. Passivity in the face of mounting Ukrainian strikes erodes his domestic standing; escalation undermines the transactional posture he is trying to maintain with Trump. At the same time the patriotic consensus is visibly cracking — mobile internet shutdowns, a rising tax burden, the spreading reach of drone attacks. Western intelligence leaks and reporting on alleged plotting against Putin amplify a sense of regime fragility. As a coup scenario this is exaggerated, but the gradual fading of Putin's credibility is real.

I have just released R.Politik Bulletin No. 9 (183), examining how Putin is navigating this moment.

On Ukraine, the Russian position has hardened — no trilateral talks before Kyiv withdraws from Donbas — as Trump's attention remains absorbed by Iran and the diplomatic process has waned. Putin made the unusual remark that the war "is coming to an end". We unpack what he actually meant — and whether the end is in fact any closer.

On Iran, Moscow is positioning Russia as a potential mediator with the conservative camp in Tehran — particularly on the uranium stockpile — keeping the door open for the moment when Washington–Tehran talks reach a fuller stalemate.

Domestically, the bulletin looks at how the Ministry of Digital Development is being drawn deeper into the FSB's orbit — against the backdrop of competing factions inside the service itself over who controls the digital sphere. It also covers the Kremlin's leadership experiment in Dagestan, Igor Chaika's unusual and divisive appointment to head Rossotrudnichestvo, and a change of Human Rights Commissioner — Moskalkova's replacement with Lantratova may complicate work with the Ukrainians.