For nearly two years, Russia's political agenda has been dominated by foreign affairs — Ukraine, the Trump diplomacy, Iran, the cycles of negotiation and failure. Over the past few weeks, the centre of gravity has shifted inward. What is emerging is a system simultaneously tightening its grip and losing some of its instinctive coordination.

The viral 18-minute address to #Putin by influencer Victoria Bonya — 30 million views, declarative loyalty combined with the implied accusation that the president has lost control of his apparatus — has triggered the most consequential question now circulating in Moscow: did she act on her own, or was the video orchestrated from inside the system? Whatever its origin, the address has fractured the official response — one faction pushed for prosecution, another quietly acknowledged the legitimacy of her irritation — and forced into the open a deeper division over the FSB-led restriction policy that elites had so far been managing in private.

I have just released R.Politik Bulletin No. 8 (182), examining the Bonya episode in depth — who might be behind it, why the system's response has fractured, and what Putin's own first public reaction to the internet restrictions on 23 April actually signals about the direction of policy.

The economic story is converging with the political one. On 15 April, Putin publicly reprimanded the economic bloc and the Central Bank — an unusual gesture that exposes a deepening contradiction between disinflationary discipline and the cabinet's demand for stimulus. With Mishustin's position now openly questioned ahead of September's #Duma elections, competition over the next government's shape is intensifying. At the same time, after three years of fighting for guarantees against de-privatisation, Russian business has now received them in a visibly circumscribed form: a long-awaited bill that codifies the very exceptions — corruption, extremism, strategic-investment claims — through which asset seizures have actually been carried out, freezing the practice in law rather than rolling it back. The detention of the top management of Eksmo, Russia's largest publisher, in a criminal case formally connected to "LGBT literature", shows how a case that began on ideological grounds can spiral into a direct threat to a sector leader — the kind of siloviki momentum that ideological legislation now generates almost on its own.
September's Duma elections will be the most uncertain in years. Mounting economic pressure, visible public discontent over internet restrictions, and an unpredictable frontline are all converging on the campaign. United Russia has finalised its candidates from the four occupied regions of Ukraine — divided unevenly between symbolic figures, local apparatchiks and externally imposed technocrats — and for the first time, the domestic policy overseers must run a federal election campaign in coordination with the security services and the armed forces, against a backdrop of unprecedented uncertainty. Putin's approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen for seven consecutive weeks to its lowest level since the start of the war.

If you follow how decisions are actually made in #Russia — the elite splits, the trade-offs, the unintended consequences of policies designed to tighten control — the full bulletin is available at https://rpolitik.com/bulletin/8-2026/bonya-s-glamorous-revolt-rattles-kremlin-putin-reprimands-economic-bloc-publicly-eksmo-detentions-hit-book-industry-de-privatisation-bill-codifies-ambiguity-united-russia-lines-up-occupied-regions?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_promo_rp&utm_content=bulletin_page