A rare situation has emerged in which domestic developments have overshadowed an already fraught international agenda for Russia.

The Kremlin has decided to begin throttling Telegram, the country’s most widely used social media platform for communication and access to information. Although preparations for such a move had been evident, the decision nonetheless came as a shock to many, including senior officials, businesses, and representatives of the pro-war community. The systemic opposition chose to speak out against the measure. While this carries no tangible political weight, it signals emerging discrepancies within the ruling elite. The FSB, which stands behind the decision, was compelled to justify its actions publicly. The measure is highly likely to be implemented, yet it will have a noticeable impact on public sentiment.

In international affairs, the Munich Security Conference was a central event, exposing growing transatlantic tensions and mistrust. This has occurred notwithstanding attempts by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to adopt a conciliatory tone. The discussions have intensified European debates about how to shape the continent’s future security and defence architecture without a dominant US role, and how to manage the Russia threat when Putin is failing to achieve victory in Ukraine yet is still committed to unrealistic objectives. Nuclear issues have moved to the centre of the discourse. Russia has observed these developments with limited interest but increasing concern.

With regard to Ukraine, talks in Geneva have opened a new chapter in diplomatic efforts. For the first time since April 2022, Russia has secured an opportunity to draw Ukraine into negotiations on the political aspects of a settlement — effectively a reproduction of the “Istanbul format” of 2022, to which Moscow has repeatedly referred as its preferred basis. The process, however, shows little sign of progress. Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push for a direct meeting with Putin, a scenario still unacceptable to Moscow. Kyiv faces a particularly difficult position: growing pressure from Washington, hesitant and divided European partners, and a Russia unwilling to abandon its maximalist demands.

Considerable attention has also focused on Armenia amid US Vice President JD Vance’s visit — the highest-ranking US official to ever visit the country. Armenia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in June, and Russia is expected to seek to weaken the position of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan by supporting his opponents. Moscow appears to underestimate the significance of the intensifying Armenian–American engagement and is likely to double down in order to keep Yerevan within its sphere of geopolitical influence. At the same time, the Kremlin must calibrate its actions carefully so as not to provoke President Donald Trump.

Decision-making logic, internal splits, and the real trade-offs that never make it into open sources — all unpacked in the new R.Politik Bulletin No. 4 (178).

Find out much more on the Kremlin thinking in our latest issue.