Over the past two weeks, the geopolitical cycle has intensified and become more volatile. The Maduro extraction was followed by Trump’s forceful threat to annex Greenland, accompanied by sustained pressure on Denmark and other European NATO allies. The chaos at Davos—marked by gloomy interventions from the leaders of Canada and Belgium, unexpected criticism of Europe by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and a series of disrupted meetings—reflected a broader sense of fragmentation in the global order.

In the latest R.Politik bulletin, we examine how Russia is interpreting and positioning itself within this evolving context. While Trump’s modus operandi—characterised by force, pressure, blackmail, and incompetence—is undoubtedly alarming to Moscow, it also creates significant tactical openings. The Kremlin has adjusted its position on both the Greenland claim and Trump’s Board of Peace initiative, carefully balancing strategic interests with potential situational gains.

Amid these shifts, a new round of discussions on the war in Ukraine has begun. The first Russia–Ukraine–US trilateral talks took place in Abu Dhabi, following a preparatory visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. What does the choice of the Russian delegation tell us? What are Putin’s intentions? What does the Kremlin expect to see further, demonstrating pragmatism coupled with still-actual maximalist demands?

On the domestic front, January brought unusual delays in wage payments to social workers in several regions—a reflection of growing economic imbalances and mounting budgetary pressure at the regional level.

At the same time, the Kremlin has accelerated preparations for the State Duma elections, as indicated by a leaked draft list of United Russia’s leading candidates. The list, headed by Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Lavrov, points not only to early electoral planning but also to ongoing internal wrangling over the party’s configuration and prospective personnel changes.

Finally, an emergency in the Belgorod region—where hundreds of thousands of residents were left without heating or electricity following Ukrainian retaliatory strikes—has exposed serious weaknesses in crisis response and the federal centre’s reluctance to publicly acknowledge the severity of the disruption.

For those monitoring how the Russian state is adjusting—strategically and structurally—this bulletin offers grounded, non-public insight essential for understanding what comes next.

https://rpolitik.com/bulletin/2-2026/abu-dhabi-talks-begin-putin-weighs-trump-s-council-fiscal-strains-surface-duma-list-leaks-belgorod-exposed?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_promo_rp&utm_content=bulletin_page