At the start of the year, when Trump first took office as president, people kept asking me: What happens when he gets disillusioned with Putin? Back then, it seemed unlikely—Trump's someone shaped by circumstances, and it's hard to picture some permanent "disillusionment" setting in. And I was right for months.

But now, things seem to be shifting. It's not just Trump—his post yesterday about Ukraine's potential to win reflects some new realities (or at least new perceptions of old ones). The shift? This spring and summer, doubts grew in the West that Ukraine could hold out. Russia ramped up its offensive, Trump hinted Russia was winning, and plenty of folks privately thought Ukraine was toast. Months later, and we're stuck in the same spot. Russia hasn't turned its tactical military edge into any strategic breakthrough. If you look at what Putin really wants in Ukraine—institutional changes for a "friendly" regime, a drastically downsized army, guarantees against NATO expansion, etc.—Russia's no closer after 3.5 years. Sure, they've grabbed more land, but that's not what the war's about.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy is looking rough, with a foggy outlook ahead. Putin will keep fighting despite resource limits—nothing will make him quit—but the current setup doesn't scream "big victory." Caveat: unless Ukraine implodes on its own. But even if it does (and many in Moscow are banking on that), it's no sure thing it'd help to make Ukraine "friendly." If anything, the opposite: massive political chaos would make deals even harder, let alone enforcing them. No matter how destabilized Ukraine gets, there won't be a new Istanbul 2 or Minsk 3 that actually sticks. That's Putin's big strategic blunder—he truly believes Ukraine will end up in his pocket eventually.

What's scary here is the risk of a sharp escalation in fighting. Ukraine isn't cracking, Trump's no longer an ally... So what's left? Double down on the war machine...