R.Politik Bulletin No. 15 (167) is out after the summer break.

We analyse the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska. Moscow achieved tactical gains: Trump no longer demands a ceasefire before talks, acknowledged Russia’s nuclear status, and hinted that Ukraine must consider concessions. Yet the deeper gulf remains: Washington dismisses Russia’s “root causes” narrative, Europe insists on shaping security guarantees, and Kyiv rejects territorial compromise.

Within four weeks, the situation reverted to a stalemate. Trump threatens new sanctions, Putin continues the war, Ukraine holds the line, and Europe dreams of security guarantees. One should not expect sharp changes, either on the battlefield or in negotiations.

We also examine Russia’s internal pressures:
– Nuclear rhetoric moderated, but deterrence remains central to Kremlin strategy.
– China ties reinforced at the SCO Tianjin summit and during Putin’s visit to Beijing, underscoring both dependence and bargaining asymmetry.
– Digital restrictions tightened: WhatsApp and Telegram calls blocked, while MAX messenger is forced onto users despite resistance.
– Judicial reshuffle: Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov set to become Supreme Court chairman, signalling wider elite adjustments.
– Economic fragility: a gasoline crisis driven by refinery strikes, reduced subsidies, and seasonal demand, alongside slowing growth, corporate losses, and rising bad loans.

Don’t miss our forthcoming Essential Ukraine report, to be released on 10 September.