There are at least two problems. The first is that Putin flatly refuses to understand that it is not the West that does not allow Ukraine to become “friendly,” but that Ukrainian society and elites will never accept the capitulatory conditions that Moscow is trying to impose on them. And no matter what points the Kremlin manages to shoehorn into agreements signed after arduous negotiations, it still won’t be possible to implement them.

The second problem is that in its search for a formula to guarantee Ukraine’s security, the West is trying to find one that would enable it to contain an aggressor that cannot be defeated using military means because it is in possession of nuclear weapons. With the West resolutely refusing to directly fight Russia on Ukraine’s side today, there is no reason to believe it will suddenly be prepared to do so in the event of a new escalation after the current war has stopped. And that means that Ukraine can’t feel safe either until Russia is defeated, or until the Kremlin changes course—which is not in the cards any time soon.

The reality today is that Moscow is not reconsidering its maximalist demands, the United States is on its way out of the conflict, and Trump may want to abandon its confrontation with Moscow altogether, while Europe is too weak to change the tide of the war without the active input of the United States—at least on a par with what Joe Biden’s administration was ready to do for Kyiv. But no matter what Putin forces Kyiv to sign, he won’t get a “friendly” Ukraine. Tactically, the parties may win, but strategically there can be no winners.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/08/russia-usa-ukraine-alaska-goals?lang=en&center=russia-eurasia