10.This leads me to conclude that no “deal”, in the sense of a settlement, is to be reached in Alaska. The most Putin can realistically hope for from Trump is support for his framework proposal. However, such support would be immediately attacked and undermined by European and Ukrainian opposition. A repeat of the 2018 Helsinki meeting is possible, when Trump, after several hours with Putin, appeared disoriented and led by the Russian leader. While no tangible results emerged, the meeting was widely seen as a personal success for Putin, although it ultimately led nowhere. I am not suggesting that events will follow the same pattern this time, and it is reasonable to assume that Trump’s team has learnt from that experience. Nevertheless, any outcome of the Alaska meeting is likely to be fragile, and developments in Ukraine itself will be far more decisive than anything Putin and Trump may agree upon there.