Perhaps this is the most significant statement by a senior Russian official regarding the anticipated Putin-Trump talks. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko not only reiterated Russia’s well-known demand for “ironclad guarantees” ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership but also stressed that “we will insist that this becomes a policy of the alliance itself.”

Welcome back to December 2021-January 2022. Recall Putin’s ultimatum to the West—a comprehensive set of demands on the future security architecture, built around two core principles: no Ukraine in NATO and no NATO in Ukraine. Revisiting the analyses and articles from that period would be invaluable, as these themes are resurfacing. This is precisely what Putin is now preparing to press on Trump.

The tactics, however, have evolved. Rather than issuing a direct ultimatum, the current approach focuses on appeasing Trump and leveraging his ambitions. Yet the core objective remains unchanged: Putin is not interested in Ukrainian or American guarantees regarding NATO membership; he seeks legally binding commitments from NATO as an alliance. In 2021, Russia aimed to impose these obligations on individual NATO member states. At the time, Putin made it clear that failure to meet these demands would result in Russia invading Ukraine.

Now, the stakes have risen even higher—Putin frames the failure to reach an agreement as a direct risk of World War III. This is not mere rhetoric; it highlights the seriousness of the situation.