The latest statements by Trump about possible talks with Russia on Ukraine reveal two significant problems.

First, Trump is persuaded that Putin “is not doing so well,” referring to the poor state of the Russian economy. This perspective, however, contradicts Putin’s own convictions about the state of his economy. In Putin’s view, the economy not only functions well but is also a source of pride, particularly when compared to Western economies. He does not consider its condition as a factor that would compel him to negotiate on Ukraine. Even if we assume the financial and economic situation were 100 times worse, Putin would still not see it as grounds to concede. Putin frequently emphasizes how “efficient” and “resilient” the Russian economy is, especially compared to what he perceives as the failings of Western economies. If Trump plans to use this belief as leverage to convince Putin to make concessions, he is bound to fail.

Second, Trump believes that Putin wants to end the war as a goal in itself. This is incorrect. For Putin, the true objective is securing a “friendly Ukraine,” and he believes this goal can be achieved sooner or later, regardless of U.S. policies. Peace, for Putin, is merely a means to achieve this goal more quickly and at a lower cost. It is ultimately a matter of how much Russia is willing to pay to achieve a “friendly Ukraine.” A peace deal on Russian terms would save significant resources, but absent such an agreement, Putin is prepared to fight for as long as it takes. The only variable is the pace of the conflict. It is true that Russia cannot sustain its current rate of offensives or afford to launch large-scale attacks on major cities. However, Putin counts to maintain military pressure without major offensives until, he believes, Kyiv capitulates. From his perspective, the sooner this happens, the better.

Finally, if the Kremlin concludes that no favorable deal with Trump is forthcoming (which may already be partly the case with some caveats), they will likely focus on prolonging the conflict. The aim would be to weaken Ukraine to the point where Trump’s ability to support it becomes useless. This tactic implies breaking Ukraine’s resistance before Trump becomes disillusioned with the Russians. In fact, many in the Russian leadership already operate from this assumption, viewing it as the basis of Russian strategy.