Trump, in the context of Assad’s regime collapse, calls on Putin to end the war in Ukraine. He claims that Zelensky “would like to make a deal and stop the madness.” If Trump were to propose such talks to Putin tomorrow, I believe Putin’s initial response would consist of three key points:
1. Zelensky must revoke the decree that prohibits negotiations with Russia.
2.Zelensky’s mandate has been invalid since May 2023, raising the question of whom Russia should engage with in negotiations.
3. Kyiv must cease all strikes and shelling of Russian territory.
Putin may raise additional conditions and will not agree to negotiations readily. He will insist that it is now up to the West and Ukraine to change their stance.
Note, that Assad’s collapse has also shaken Putin, making him less inclined to demonstrate flexibility with Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has, to some extent, cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise.
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