Vladimir Putin has signed Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, which includes key amendments he personally presented in September. These changes lower the threshold for nuclear use and create more leeway for a Russian nuclear response to Ukrainian—or, as the Kremlin frames it, Western—strikes on Russian territory. Here are three my considerations:

1. Timing is critical. According to Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, these changes were developed over several months. However, their publication was deliberately timed to highlight a connection to Biden’s decision to authorise Ukraine to use long-range missiles for deep strikes into Russian territory.

2. A Direct Threat: This may be the first time the Kremlin has explicitly acknowledged, even when prompted by a question, the potential use of nuclear weapons as a response to strikes on Russian territory using long-range missiles. Put simply, Peskov openly admits that the Kremlin is currently considering the possibility of a nuclear strike.

3. Escalation is Too Attractive Right Now: The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate. With Trump not yet in office, such a move would not interfere with any immediate peace initiatives but could instead reinforce Trump’s argument for direct dialogue with Putin. Simultaneously, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst of the escalation while potentially discouraging Ukraine from further using long-range missiles.

Putin may see the current situation as a strategic “in-between” moment—anticipating possible peace initiatives from Trump while emphasising what he views as the “irresponsibility” of Biden’s policy. Putin may seek to present the West with two stark choices: “Do you want a nuclear war? You will have it,” or “Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms.”

This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture.