Some brief thoughts on the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:

• Russia lacks the military resources to significantly expand its control over Ukraine and has to slow its offensive. It continues to rely on the gradual weakening of the Ukrainian state or a collapse at the front, while persistently targeting the country’s energy infrastructure. This strategy may continue without decisive success.

• Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, it seems unlikely that the West will support Ukraine to a degree that could force Russia to retreat. From Moscow’s perspective, there are no actions that could decisively shift the situation in Ukraine’s favour.

• There are no strong indications that meaningful peace talks regarding the nature of the conflict will happen soon. Ukraine is considering more flexible approaches, such as exchanging territory for peace, but Russia is betting on the fall of Kyiv. The West lacks a viable plan and the political will to develop one, while other states such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or China do not have proposals that are acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.

• There is an increasing call within the international community for a ceasefire, though currently, no practical routes toward this goal are visible. A ceasefire would benefit Russia, but Putin currently does not perceive an urgent need for one.

• Extraterritorial escalation is on the rise, involving Russia and the West and extending beyond the Ukrainian conflict. Both sides are progressively testing each other’s patience and tolerance levels.