A Quick Q&A on Whether Putin Truly Intends to End the War in Ukraine.

Q1. Does Putin Suggest Negotiations with the West?
No. Neither Putin nor other senior Russian officials perceive the West as a capable and responsible counterpart for discussing strategic issues, as Russia understands them. Even if Trump wins the November election, the Russian leadership harbours no illusions about the West's incapacity to pragmatically engage with Russia, particularly in terms of seriously considering its strategic interests.

Q2. So Why, in this case, are Putin's purported representatives signalling to Washington insiders a willingness to halt the conflict and start negotiations, as reported by The New York Times?
First, it's important to clarify that these individuals are not Putin's designated representatives, nor are they explicitly tasked by Putin with this specific objective. They are individuals who interpret Putin's stance in a manner they believe to be most accurate. They genuinely think Putin desires to end the conflict and perhaps hope to play a role as mediators. It suits Putin.

Q3. Why Does Putin Continue to Speak About Peace Negotiations?
Putin's stance is predicated on the belief that Russia did not initiate the conflict, but rather, it was the West, using Ukraine to strategically and militarily confront Russia, including through the provision of arms. He needs the West to desist: to stop sending arms, supporting Ukraine, assisting its resistance, not to mention to turn off the counter-offensive. To Putin, "peace" implies Ukraine ceasing its resistance and the West withdrawing from all matters Ukraine. And he has a limited timeframe, with a critical window up to 2024 – the period before the West increases ammunition production and formulates a new strategy to support Ukraine effectively.

Q4. Is Putin Prepared to Cease Military Engagement Himself?
In short, yes, but in fact, not really. If Putin perceives that Ukraine is yielding and considering Russian peace terms (effectively tantamount to capitulation), he may significantly reduce military aggression and strikes. His objective is not necessarily to conquer all of Ukraine but to coerce it into accepting political and geopolitical conditions conducive to a Russia-friendly regime. In this case, to whom Odesa belongs is a secondary question to him. However, if Ukraine continues to resist or counterattack, Putin is prepared to not only maintain aggression but also escalate and seize more territory. There's a strategic calculation at play: the longer Ukraine resists, the more territory it risks losing.

Q5. Then, is Ukraine Inevitably Doomed?
This is Putin's perspective and what he aims to propagate. My view differs; I don’t believe Ukraine will capitulate after enduring so much. IOver time, it might contemplate certain concessions, such as on Donbas or Crimea, but capitulation on Putin’s terms seems absolutely inconceivable. And this would likely fall short of Putin's aspirations. He envisions the cessation of Ukraine as it currently stands, viewing the conflict not just as a territorial dispute but as a battle against what he perceives as a Western 'anti-Russia' project in Ukraine, but he will not get it.

Q6. So, What Course of Action Remains?
Realistically, there’s no immediate military solution to halt Russia. The key factor is the duration of Putin's tenure. His potential successors, even the most hardline, are unlikely to adopt the same approach. Among the Russian elite, territorial gains are often deemed sufficient for ending the conflict. Disappointing for Putin, Ukraine will not accept his peace terms, thus, he will not win in a way he thinks he must. Plus, contrary to some views, Putin’s time to manoeuvre is not infinite. Ukraine's strategy must focus on enduring this period with minimal damage until the 'post-Putin' era emerges.