Recently, Western media has been flooded with articles about a seemingly losing Ukraine. Some call for tougher strategies against Russia and in support of Ukraine, while others simply express pessimism and despondency. Frankly, the mood is becoming increasingly gloomy by the day. Simultaneously, there is talk that Putin is fortunate, with time on his side, unfolding exactly as he planned. All of this is quite understandable, but overly opportunistic.

In reality, the situation isn't so joyful for Russia in the long term either.

1️⃣ First, it's highly improbable that Putin's expectations of Ukraine's capitulation or the fall of its regime will be met. Time is not infinite for him either. He genuinely believes that Kyiv is doomed, but he cannot afford to wait years. Tactically, he may be winning, but strategically, his plan is also doomed: Kyiv will not capitulate under Russian conditions (for Putin, it's not just a question of territory, but a matter of Ukraine's future).

2️⃣ Second, no matter how much the West tires of Ukraine or how the dynamics change in Western political circles, it's hard to envision the emergence of a viable political force that would advocate normalizing relations with Russia. Figures like Trump won't side with Russia, though Moscow would find their rise convenient. Putin's hope that a "pragmatic" and nationally oriented West will prevail and life will normalize is also unlikely to materialize. And even those who now push for peace talks with Moscow will be disappointed because Putin wants much more than peace - he wants a Ukraine that is friendly to Russia. Thus Russia, too, is doomed to live in a consistently hostile environment.

3️⃣ Finally, the war is undeniably draining Russia. Yes, it could last a long time, but at a colossal cost. Putin's regime will slowly transform, society is changing too (generational shifts are inevitable), Putin himself isn’t immortal, and the elites will gradually play a more significant role. Even if Russia becomes more aggressive and hawkish in form, it might, over the years, become more pragmatic, less fixated on the messianic "rescue of the Ukrainian people,” as Putin does.

Considering all this, Ukraine and the West need to understand that they must also be patient and prepare for a long war. This is the reality. And it doesn't necessarily mean that Putin will be victorious.