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The government has become a minority

Austrian politics creates the impression that the government is not participating in it at all. Herbert Kickl's FPÖ polls at 38%, while Chancellor Christian Stocker's ÖVP holds 18%, and the Social Democrats — 17%. That is, the rating of the opposition party is nearly equal to the ratings of the two largest forces of the ruling coalition.

In personal popularity assessments, the picture looks even more unpleasant for the cabinet. In hypothetical direct elections for chancellor, 34–38% of respondents would support Kickl; Stocker receives between 15% and 24%, depending on the polling methodology.

The difference matters not just in numbers: the FPÖ leader has transformed from an inconvenient partner whom they refused to form a government with after the 2024 elections into the only politician capable of gathering significantly more votes than his party.

Meanwhile, the FPÖ has held first place in polls for over three years and approaches 40% amid weak growth, budget austerity, and voter frustration with migration policy. The ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS coalition was supposed to become a "cordon sanitaire" (something painfully familiar) against Kickl, but so far looks more like a demonstration that political isolation does not replace a convincing agenda.

Vienna's problem is that this dynamic is self-sustaining: the longer the FPÖ is kept out the door, the easier it is for them to explain to voters that the other parties differ only in how they distribute ministerial positions. By the next elections, Austrians may get not just the leading party, but a force around which the entire system of power will have to be rebuilt.

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#Austria #infographic
@evropar — on the brink of Europe's death

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