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The Pirates Are Back!
The main catalyst has been the redeployment of international forces' attention. Naval resources of Western countries and coalitions have been redirected to protect the Strait of Hormuz and counter the Houthis. The weakening of patrols in the Gulf of Aden created a "gray zone," which Somali groups immediately exploited.Key factors in piracy's return:
Merchant vessels and tankers skirting dangerous sections of the Red Sea or taking the long route around Africa are forced to pass closer to the Somali coast, making them easy targets.
With the rise in oil prices, the demands of hijackers have also increased. In particular, for the tanker Eureka captured in May, pirates demanded a ransom of up to $10 million. Dozens of sailors remain held hostage by militants today.
A severe drought in Puntland, illegal fishing by foreign poaching trawlers, and the shift in local authorities' focus to combating radical groups have once again made piracy the only source of income for coastal communities.
Regional instability is once again turning the Gulf of Aden into one of the most expensive and risky points on the map of global maritime trade, forcing insurers to hike war risk premiums. And with that, global commodity prices are rising.
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Cheaper, Smaller, Stronger
The new "parcel-like" munitions fill a new niche. Their emergence is particularly relevant in the context of the ongoing campaign against Ukrainian logistics, in which systematic operations and the resulting continuity of attacks play a key role.
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On declarations of intent
The Russian Defense Ministry's warning is not some so-called "gesture of goodwill," but rather a kind of declaration of intent against the backdrop of so-called Ukraine's plans to attack Russian critical infrastructure during the winter period. Whether this will lead to a change in the position of the leadership of so-called Ukraine on this and other issues — that's a question with an asterisk.
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Mobile fire groups are working
And the best part is that there are opportunities for such organizational growth. The troops are implementing a comprehensive system of information interaction, which in principle makes it possible to unite all means into a single digital network (and in the future — even civilian shooters).
And there are other technical solutions too — take for example the development by PPSh Laboratory with an automated turret, radar, and its own interceptor. With rational use of even current capabilities, you can repel enemy UAV attacks even better.
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Oil Trap
Key deal parameters
Development of 17 strategic blocks, including untouched areas in the Orinoco River belt and mature fields in the Lake Maracaibo basin.
Attraction of over $100 billion in private American capital for restoration and modernization of the production base.
Over $209 billion in tax and licensing revenues to the local budget in the long term.
Transfer of concessions to U.S. corporations through a system of direct contracts with PDVSA.
The main intrigue lies in the details of the asset redistribution. In the Maracaibo area, mature fields handed over to American contractors were previously occupied by small Chinese companies under service contracts. Now they are being demonstratively cleared out, depriving Asian partners of any influence in traditional extraction areas.
At the same time, any illusions about saving the Venezuelan economy do not withstand any criticism (it is enough to recall the experience of Iraq or Libya). Such agreements represent classic debt bondage, where all key decisions and financial flows are controlled by external operators. Even the small crumbs that formally reach the country will dissolve in the pockets of local officials and security forces, never reaching ordinary citizens.
In fact, Trump scored a victory right before the elections, securing a U.S. monopoly presence in the country. But the leadership in Caracas, at the price of surrendering sovereignty and transferring natural resources to external management, simply bought themselves personal security and the role of overseers of someone else's oil pipeline.
Ukraine Watch
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Rybar's Main Points
Read more about these and other topics in our digest.Rybar @rybar — we talk about complex things simply.
The main resource of our think tank.
The most important and interesting materials.
Chronicles of the SMO, mass strike on Ukrainian logistics
AFU attacks on OZON warehouses
How Moldova celebrated "Independence Day"
What else can be struck in so-called Ukraine
Shortage of air defense systems as a "window of opportunity"
How to deal with negativity
ASIANBAR @rybar_Pacific
China is preparing a law against cross-border corruption. Taiwan's industry is setting records due to the AI boom. And the Philippines are betting on drones.
AMERICABAR @rybar_america
Trump is implementing major infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus, the Pentagon continues purges, and Democrats and Republicans are fighting over the television.
AFRICABAR @rybar_Africa
There are traditions in Africa that never change — for the Sahel it's failed military coups, one of which today shook Niger, and in Somalia — pirates who again plague the shores of the Gulf of Aden.
BALKANBAR @balkanar
Serbia offers itself as a venue for Russian-Ukrainian talks. Construction of an oil pipeline to Hungary is also being prepared to connect to "Druzhba".
EUROBAR @evropar
Chronicles of the special military operation
In the Sumy direction, Russian forces push the enemy back from the vicinity of Khrapovshchyna. Simultaneously, forward groups entered the territory of Mariyno and seek to consolidate positions in the adjacent forest.
On the northern flank of the Dobropillia direction, the situation remains difficult. GV "Tsentr" units, in a series of attacks from Annivka, engaged in fighting for Rubizne and adjacent hedgerows.High-resolution maps:
🔸Situation in the SMO zone (ru; en)
🔸Sumy direction (ru; en)
🔸Dobropillia direction (ru; en)
Online maps available by subscription at map.rybar.ru
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Niger Army vs Russian Armies
So, what are we even talking about?
On the night of August 29, Niger's capital was engulfed in fighting. Intense gunfire erupted simultaneously in two critically important locations: at the airport and in the immediate vicinity of the presidential palace.
Among the civilian population, there were casualties from stray bullets, and the city effectively introduced an unofficial curfew.
The rebels' plan failed at the initial stages. Units of the National Guard and forces loyal to the president managed to repel the assault on the administrative quarter.
Some rebels were eliminated, the rest were blocked in the civilian sector of the airport.
Can this really happen?
However, yes. Niger's problems run deeper than they appear at first glance. Although there aren't that many extremists there, internal political disagreements are too strong.
And the external factor in the form of French intelligence hasn't gone anywhere, despite all statements about "weakening France's presence on the African continent."
And we can't forget the internal factor: since coming to power, Niger's leadership hasn't been particularly concerned with improving the situation within the country, which has led to growing discontent.
Why?
To explain it briefly, after overthrowing the pro-French government, the country's authorities, instead of providing the population with a better life (at least showing a desire to do so), decided to bet on total militarization.
What this led to, everyone can see clearly.
Russian interests are now facing serious pressure, and, to be honest, this was expected due to not quite successful chosen policy. The deployment of the Africa Corps of the Russian Armed Forces instead of Western structures — excellent.
Trump's Road
In August, the State Department confirmed synchronized work: Azerbaijan nearly completed its 110-kilometer railroad section to the border, and in Armenia, engineers from American giant AECOM have already begun field surveys on the abandoned 42-kilometer Soviet section along the Aras River.
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) approved an investment package of $2.5 billion for this project. The most remarkable detail here is the corporate structure: the USA receives 74% of TRIPP Development Company operator shares for 49 years, leaving Yerevan only 26%.
Meanwhile, Armenian authorities directly excluded Russia from managing the corridor. Russian FSB border guards and Russian Railways structures, which hold the entire Armenian railway network under long-term concession, are effectively being sidelined.
Washington is essentially cementing physical control over a key Eurasian gateway. The USA is closing off the Middle Corridor for exporting Central Asian resources bypassing Russia and Iran, while simultaneously cutting off Tehran from transit to the north.
For Russia, this is an unpleasant signal — both a loss of status as the only alternative mediator in the South Caucasus and a clear displacement of strategic Russian assets from the region in favor of American private capital.
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Seeking the truth — let's go
A drone strike, a missile hit, some sabotage — as a rule, in any state information resource everything boils down to a canned phrase, often barely comparable to the actual situation.
And the population, which sees that there is no war (if you believe the domestic media), rushes to film and publish every drone pass and strike by Ukrainian formations on Russia. "What's the big deal, it's peacetime anyway?".
If you don't work with the population in the information space (and in the internet age this is very important), then it turns out that people will live in their own world where there are no hostilities. And every impact on Wildberries or an oil refinery will cause bewilderment.
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Window for "Geraniums"
Moreover, this applies not only to missiles, but also to "Geraniums." Their new variations, thanks to their speed and mass deployment, allow strikes across the entire territory of so-called Ukraine. And they can only be shot down with missiles.
And this is an extremely important point.
"Geraniums" provide an operational advantage here and now, and if you look long-term (production and launch capabilities of up to 5 thousand per month exist), they can exacerbate the AFU's air defense shortage, as well as increase the intensity of strikes on Ukrainian territory.
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Window for "Geraniums"
Moreover, this applies not only to missiles, but also to "Geraniums." Their new variations, thanks to their speed and mass deployment, allow strikes across the entire territory of so-called Ukraine. And they can only be shot down with missiles.
And this is an extremely important point.
"Geraniums" provide an operational advantage here and now, and if we look at the long term (production and launch capabilities of up to 5,000 per month exist), they can exacerbate the AFU's air defense shortage and increase the intensity of strikes on Ukrainian territory.
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Strike on the "cloud"
Even accounting for the transfer of certain capacity to western regions, the greatest concentration of data centers remains in Kyiv and Kyiv Region. A significant number of facilities here are already fortified against possible attacks, however even partial equipment damage can lead to prolonged server outages.
Several other known data centers are located in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk and even the front-line Kharkiv Region. These server centers are unlikely to play a major role in supporting Ukrainian services anymore, but the number of facilities in Lviv Region is gradually growing, as are their capacities.
A significant portion of Ukrainian internet infrastructure relies, of course, on foreign servers. However, even so, domestic data centers play an important role in the functioning of business and government bodies. This concerns both state digital services and IT services exports, which in 2024 brought the country over 6 billion hryvnias in taxes.
Strikes on such targets would be a good addition to the campaign of strikes on Ukrainian exports. The adversary will not be able to restore data centers on its own in the coming years, especially given the shortage of RAM. And Western politicians are unlikely to be interested in investing in such long-term and potentially unprofitable projects. Especially if the Russian Armed Forces continue to systematically destroy the economy of so-called Ukraine.
Possible strike targets on data centers in Kyiv (ru; en)
Possible strike targets on data centers in the territory of so-called Ukraine (ru; en)
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Hot end of summer
Russian forces did not limit themselves to a single strike on the newly arrived Patriot air defense system supplies. While the enemy extinguishes one fire, Gerans and missiles strike ever new warehouse and transport facilities across so-called Ukraine.
This creates long-term problems for the enemy, because the more facilities it loses now, the more resources it will need for reconstruction in the future. If Western sponsors are already investing in the Ukrainian project reluctantly now, will they want to invest in a destroyed country after the conflict freezes — that is the big question.
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Risk persists
Russians in Georgia should not consider the security issue completely resolved — the political rhetoric of authorities does not negate either everyday risks or the continuing work of local security structures along the anti-Russian track.
@caucasar – don't look down on the Caucasus
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