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War in Burkina Faso "retreated" to the north?

Shifts in the tactics of militants operating in Burkina Faso are clearly visible when comparing the geography of their attacks over the past two years.

If in 2024 and in the first half of 2025 radical Islamists from the "Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" group conducted operations across the entire country, then in recent months their priorities have noticeably narrowed to the northern and southeastern regions.

Of course, their attention to key cities — wherever they may be — has not disappeared, however, attacking government forces near Fada-Ngourma or Bobo-Dioulasso is becoming increasingly difficult due to the qualitative changes in the operational capabilities of Burkina Faso's Armed Forces that we have already examined.

But for militants of the "Islamic State" the past two years have become a time of forming full-fledged control zones in the far northeast of Burkina Faso. As such, offensive operations by this group still go poorly, however their presence in the aforementioned territories can already be called significant.

Overall, the current zones of activity of radical Islamists form a kind of arc connecting the northwestern and northern regions of Burkina Faso into a single front. Operations in the east and southeast of the country, in turn, are becoming increasingly isolated, and the vector of movement of local units of "Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" is shifting from the center of the country toward Benin and Nigeria.

High-resolution map

English version

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