USDINR: (Short term bias- Volatile.
Support April futures – 83.30 and 83.10
Resistance- 83.55 and 83.65)

Last week's movement in USDINR caught traders off guard, but this shouldn't be entirely unexpected. We've previously cautioned about the potential for erratic movements during the final two weeks of the financial year, often due to irregular flows. Despite this, global indicators aren't yet indicating strong support for a sustained breakout in USDINR. Therefore, it's wise to exercise caution before initiating new long positions using futures.

As today marks the final spot date of the financial year, we may see increased selling pressure from exporters. Additionally, over the next couple of days, exporter hedging through forwards and futures could intensify as year-end book closing approaches. Given this scenario, traders considering short positions on USDINR may find options to be a suitable avenue. A prudent stop could be placed above 83.65 on a spot basis.

Support levels are anticipated around 83.40 and 83.20 on the spot, while resistance is likely to be encountered near the 83.60/65 levels. This suggests that traders should be mindful of these levels when making trading decisions.



GBPINR: (Short term bias – Downward drift.
Support April futures- 105.00 and 104.80
Resistance – 105.55 and 105.85

Last week witnessed substantial selling pressure on both GBPUSD and GBPINR, primarily driven by the ascent of US bond yields, which bolstered the US Dollar, coupled with dovish sentiments from the Bank of England (BOE) weighing on the GBP.

Currently, GBP/USD is seeking support in the vicinity of the 1.2550/1.2500 zone, correlating to approximately 105.00 on the GBPINR pair. Further support levels for the pair are foreseen around 104.80 and 104.50. Over the course of the year, GBPINR has navigated within a wide range, typically vacillating between levels of 104.00 and 106.50.



EURINR: (Short term Bias- Downward drift.
Support April futures – 90.20 and 90.00,
Resistance – 90.65 and 90.90)

Last week, robust US macroeconomic data, alongside a mixed bag of Eurozone PMIs, drove the US Dollar higher while putting downward pressure on the Euro. Strong performance in US unemployment claims, coupled with a better-than-expected regional manufacturing index from the Philly Fed and manufacturing PMI, outweighed disappointment from the services PMI. Additionally, existing home sales data showed strength. Conversely, Eurozone manufacturing PMI weakened, slipping into contraction territory, despite an improvement in services PMI.

Looking forward, the Euro may continue its decline against the US Dollar, potentially reaching levels around 1.07/1.0730. This downward trajectory suggests that EUR/INR might also experience further downside. Support levels for EUR/INR are anticipated around 90.00 and 89.70.



JPYINR: (Short term bias- Near major support.
Support April futures- 55.20 and 55.00,
Resistance- 55.65 and 55.85)

USD/JPY is currently teetering just below a significant resistance level around 152.00. Last week, Japanese Consumer Price Inflation surged to 2.8% year-on-year in February, up from 2.2% in January, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%. This uptick is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, largely associated with government energy subsidy programs. The Japanese Yen's depreciation can be attributed to relatively appealing carry trade returns and the robust performance of the US Dollar Index.

USD/JPY encounters formidable resistance near the 152.00 mark. Verbal interventions from Japanese officials have intensified in response. However, the allure of carry trade interest may persist, propelling the pair higher and driving JPY/INR lower. Consequently, our bias remains tilted towards the upside for USD/JPY as long as it maintains above the 150.00 level on a closing basis, while simultaneously leaning downward for JPY/INR.