Join Anindya Banerjee (SVP – Commodity Derivatives) along with experts from the Kotak Neo FICC Research Desk as they decode how geopolitics, currencies, and macro trends shape the movement of commodity markets. From crude oil to metals, understand the bigger picture driving price action.

�� What You’ll Learn in This Session:

�� Key Insights:
* Impact of global geopolitical tensions on commodity supply chains
* How Dollar Index & currency movements influence commodity prices
* Energy & metals: Key macro drivers behind price fluctuations
* Industrial vs Precious metals outlook explained
* Trade flows, global positioning & demand-supply dynamics
* How to use FICC research insights for smarter trading decisions
* Practical trading strategies based on geo-economic signals

�� Event Details:
Date: Friday, 10th April 2026
Time: 5:00 PM IST
Platform: Live Session

If you want to stay ahead in commodity trading by understanding the why behind the move, this session is a must-watch.

�� https://www.youtube.com/live/01M5Hz1Yb9E

�� INR is already pricing in peak fear. REER at ~87.5 — levels last seen at crisis bottoms of 1999, 2008 & 2013.

�� Iran has an endgame. Hormuz disruption will pass — and what follows could be a structural shift: a more stable, modern, and economically integrated West Asia, compressing oil’s geopolitical risk premium.

�� In that regime, INR stands out as a prime beneficiary — from deep undervaluation to potential inflow-driven strength.

Disclaimer: https://www.kotakneo.com/disclaimer/commodities/

�� The Dollar Empire Is Quietly Re-Industrializing


Three headlines.
At first glance they look unrelated.

But together they reveal a huge shift in the global economic order.

�� 1️⃣ Gulf Nations → Trillions Into the U.S.
Oil-rich Gulf countries committing trillions of dollars of investments into the United States over the next decade.

���� 2️⃣ India → $500 Billion Purchases
India agreeing to buy roughly $500 billion of American goods and energy.

�� 3️⃣ Reliance → Massive Investment in U.S. Refining
Reliance Industries planning large investments in refining infrastructure inside the United States.

These are not random announcements.

They are signals.

⚠️ The Dollar Empire is preparing to become a producer economy again.

And that is happening because the old system is breaking down.

For decades the system worked like this:

BRICS+ economies and the Global South subsidized the U.S. economy by constantly buying dollars and dollar assets.

That support kept the dollar artificially strong.

And when the dollar stays strong, something important happens.

�� Currency weakness moves abroad.

Once currency weakness moves abroad, the next step follows naturally.

�� Inflation moves abroad.

The dollars printed in America flowed across the world — inflating commodities, assets, and industrial expansion across emerging economies.

Then came the next step.

�� Factories moved abroad.

Production migrated to the Global South where currencies were weaker, labour was cheaper, and costs were lower.

And when factories move…

�� Pollution moves abroad.

The environmental cost of global industrialization was largely absorbed by Asia, BRICS economies, and emerging markets, while the West consumed the finished products.

So the system worked like this:

�� Currency weakness moved abroad
�� Inflation moved abroad
�� Factories moved abroad
�� Pollution moved abroad

While the United States became a financialized consumption economy.

But that system depended entirely on one pillar.

�� The dollar’s reserve currency privilege.

And that privilege is slowly eroding.

�� De-dollarization
�� De-globalization
�� Multipolar geopolitics

These forces are changing the structure of the global economy.

And now the United States must do something it has not done for decades.

⚙️ Produce again.

But rebuilding production inside America requires something drastic.

The country must suddenly do what it outsourced to the rest of the world.

It must begin to exploit its own economic factors again.

�� Labor must become cheaper
�� Land must become cheaper
�� Natural resources must be exploited
�� Industrial pollution must increase

And above all…

�� The dollar must weaken significantly.

Because without a weaker currency, American manufacturing simply cannot compete globally.

And that adjustment has already begun.

Not necessarily first against other fiat currencies…

But against real money.

�� Gold
�� Silver

For years the dollar has been losing purchasing power against precious metals.

Gold and silver are not merely rising.

⚠️ The dollar is falling against real money.

Over time this adjustment will spread further.

It will begin appearing against currencies of the BRICS+ and Global South economies.

���� China has already started moving in that direction.

Eventually the shift will reach multiple currencies, including:

���� The Indian rupee.

Now those three headlines make perfect sense.

�� Foreign capital flowing into America
⚡️ Foreign demand supporting American production
�� Global companies investing in U.S. industrial infrastructure

These are early signals of America preparing for a new economic reality.

�� The Dollar Empire is being forced to return to the old-fashioned economics of production.

And that transition will almost certainly happen alongside a major structural devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

Because once the reserve currency privilege fades, the global system resets.

And when that happens…

�� The dollar will have to discover its real value.

These were comments after the October massacre in Israel (2023).

That lighting up of West Asia is changing everything as we write


It's 2026, that fire 🔥 still rages on.


Quite prophetic, one can say 😎

�� The Dollar Funding Squeeze — A Key Signal From Global Markets

Escalating tensions in West Asia have triggered a classic global dash for dollars, a dynamic that is now clearly visible in cross-currency funding markets. ��

Cross-currency basis swaps versus the euro, Swiss franc and pound have turned sharply more negative, indicating that non-US investors are paying an increasing premium to borrow dollars via FX swaps rather than in their domestic currencies.

This widening basis is typically a textbook signal of tightening offshore USD funding conditions, reflecting elevated demand for dollar liquidity from global banks, asset managers and corporates.

At the same time, the US dollar has strengthened sharply, with broad dollar indices registering their strongest gains in months as investors move toward USD cash and short-dated Treasuries as safe-haven assets.

⚡️ Why West Asia tensions matter for the dollar

West Asia is systemically critical for global energy markets. Any disruption risk pushes oil and energy prices higher, which creates a terms-of-trade shock for large importers such as Europe, India and much of Asia.

Higher energy prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty typically trigger:

• Portfolio outflows from emerging markets
• Increased demand for USD-denominated safe assets
• Hedging demand from corporates with dollar liabilities

When these forces occur simultaneously, global investors rush to secure dollar funding through FX swap markets, causing the cross-currency basis to widen sharply.

�� The cross-currency basis — the market’s early warning signal

A more negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD or CHF/USD basis usually signals:

• Scarcity of offshore USD funding
• Rising liquidity and counterparty premia
• A strong preference to hold dollars despite higher borrowing costs

Historically, similar patterns were observed during the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the early-2020 Covid shock, often prompting central banks to activate USD liquidity swap lines to stabilize funding markets.

�� The geopolitical framework shaping markets

From a geopolitical perspective, the current conflict appears to be evolving along two competing strategic objectives.

The US–Israel axis appears focused on weakening the IRGC’s strategic influence in Iran, potentially through a phased framework:

1️⃣ Phase 1: Elimination and sanitisation of military infrastructure and command networks
2️⃣ Phase 2: Formation of an interim governing framework
3️⃣ Phase 3: Elections leading to a permanent political structure

However, the success of later phases depends critically on the success of Phase 1.

On the other side, the IRGC’s strategy appears aimed at prolonging the conflict, particularly by threatening disruptions to critical energy and shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

A prolonged conflict increases global economic pressure and could potentially force international powers to push for negotiations, allowing the IRGC to survive in some form within Iran’s political structure.

�� Market implications

The liquidity stress visible in cross-currency basis swaps has already triggered a broad liquidation across global risk assets, including metals.

However, we view these moves primarily as liquidity-driven corrections rather than structural trend reversals.

In periods of sudden global dollar demand, investors often sell liquid assets first, which temporarily pressures commodities and risk assets.

For long-term investors, these phases historically create accumulation opportunities rather than structural bearish trends.

���� Implications for India

For India, the transmission channels are relatively clear:

• Higher oil prices increase the import bill
• Global risk aversion can pressure emerging market currencies
• Broad USD strength may keep USD/INR biased higher

The RBI is likely to actively manage volatility through FX reserves and liquidity operations if pressures intensify.

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USDINR continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel, reflecting an orderly and well-managed depreciation of the Rupee.

Both time and price symmetry stand out—the pace (speed) of depreciation has been remarkably uniform, suggesting active management BY RBI rather than disorderly FX stress.

Prices are now resting on a critical confluence zone:


Lower channel support


Psychological round-number support at 90.00


This area is pivotal.


Hold above 90.00:
The broader uptrend remains intact, keeping the controlled depreciation framework alive.


Decisive break below 90.00:
Risks a channel breakdown and signals a bearish reversal in USDINR (Rupee strength).


Downside levels on a breakdown:


89.00 – first support / prior congestion


88.00 – deeper retracement and earlier distribution zone


In short, 90.00 is the line in the sand. The next directional move will likely be dictated by how price behaves around this level.

https://x.com/amital13/status/2010635421819064384

As we have been been flagging in our research memos, the real stress is at the long end of the curve.

The Fed will eventually have to step in — because price-insensitive buyers are exiting.

Japan wants out.

Primary dealers want out.

BRICS+ began reducing exposure long ago.

This is where the real story lies.

�� MACRO REGIME SHIFT | CONNECT THE DOTS ��


�� $200bn Mortgage-Backed Securities buying announced

�� $40bn per month liquidity quietly injected by the Fed

�� Credit-card rates to be capped at 10%


Three headlines.

One direction.

This is not policy noise.

This is financial repression taking shape.


�� WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING:

The US fiscal deficit is already out of control.

Debt issuance is being forced into the short end, because rolling long would detonate long-term yields.

The old, price-insensitive buyers are gone.

BRICS+ central banks are net sellers of US Treasuries, using the cover of a strong dollar and FX intervention.

Only Japan remains — and even that is by necessity, not choice.


�� THE CORNER THE US IS TRAPPED IN

The US government is the largest employer

Runs the largest freebies programme in the world
All funded by the reserve-currency privilege

Cut the deficit ➝ growth collapses

Don’t cut the deficit ➝ someone must absorb the debt

There is only one buyer left.

The Federal Reserve.


⚠️ A LINE HAS BEEN CROSSED:

The dollar-debasement trade just received a major boost overnight..

Jerome Powell made an unprecedented video statement, revealing that Trump is using the legal apparatus to explore criminal investigation threats — the real objective being to pressure the Fed into aggressive rate cuts, despite inflation on the ground suggesting otherwise.

This is extraordinary.

Something usually seen in fragile economies — never in a country issuing the world’s reserve currency.

This is not subtle pressure.

This is open revolt.

But we are not surprised.

�� THE ENDGAME:

In the mature phase of de-dollarisation, the US government has very few choices left.

To backstop yields
To monetise exploding deficits
To continue funding dole-outs and freebies

�� Control over monetary policy becomes inevitable

Yield Curve Control — without naming it

Debt monetisation — without admitting it

Dollar sacrificed — to save the system


�� THE TRADE | REAL MONEY WINS

This is exactly what we have been saying since the election.

�� Fiat loses pricing power
�� Gold absorbs value
⚪️ Silver accelerates

A slow, controlled value transfer is underway.

When we compare Nasdaq and Dow against gold and silver, bullion has outperformed for the last 7–8 years.

That tells you one thing clearly:
�� Currency debasement is running faster than financial-asset reflation
This trend is likely to continue into 2026.



Cycles are ruthless.

And this one is entering its decisive phase.

Real money never lies.

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RBI played a Perfect Santa !!!

Christmas is the time when everyone expects a surprise gift from Santa, and RBI didn’t disappoint the market, esp. bond market, after it announced 2 lacs OMO and $10B USDINR buy/sell swap, to infuse liquidity.

Announcement came as a real BIG surprise because it came in quick succession and double the size, given that RBI had announced 1 lac OMO and $5 bln FX swap just 18 days back. Market was expecting another OMO sometime in Jan, but this announcement just two days before Christmas is no less than a surprise gift.

This should come as a big relief to fixed income market as bonds have been under severe pressure over the last 7-10 days. Yields which traded 6.49 post RBI policy on Dec 5, made a high of 6.70 earlier today in the morning, before settling at 6.62.

The surprise gift from RBI should have soothing effect on equity as well but more important will be to see its impact on INR.

Going by the textbook, it should have negative impact on INR (more rupee liquidity), but looking at the OMO and FX swap size, it also gives headroom to RBI to intervene aggressively, if needed, without bothering about draining too much liquidity.

One of the reasons, rupee depreciated recently at a faster pace, because market knew that central bank hands are tied at back and would not be in position to sell aggressively to avoid draining the system liquidity.

Thankfully, last two instances of aggressive intervention in spot along with pulling the forward points up (6% in one month bucket, and almost 3.25% in one year, against fair range of 2.20% to 2.30%) puts all doubt on the intent, to rest.

For a short rupee speculator, nothing bites more than paying a higher carry, and more so when it is bumped up by design. Hopefully, the new swap will possibly also normalise the forward points gradually.

In nutshell, on the face of things, there could not have been a better Christmas gift than this for INR assets (bonds, equities and Rupee). Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year !!!

What’s Driving Rupee - Fundamental or Market Positioning !!!

Rupee made a new low again today and closed at 90.78. It has kind of become a puzzle for everyone - why it is getting singled out despite not so bad macros. Many of market experts are attributing this to rising trade deficit, FPI outflows and uncertainity around trade deal.

But the way, I am seeing, trade deficit or FPI outflows or trade deal are small part of the problem. Bigger issue seems to be central bank large short forward book ($63 billion as of Oct end) and market testing central bank resolve to defend rupee on days when these forward position come to maturity.

On such days, RBI can do two things - either it gives delivery of dollar against its short forward position or roll-it over. But if it gives delivery, it impacts liquidity and in turn nullifies its own effort to keep sufficient liqudity in the system. Then the only option left out with, is rolling-over the position to next maturity, and thats where rupee gets in a downward loop. These roll-overs or what we call fixing related demand, pulls USDINR up.

So, as per my understanding, what we are seeing in rupee is largely on account of market positioning than actual fundamentals. There is no denying that macros are getting softer below the surface but not so weak that it warrants such a move. In nutshell, trading USDINR is now more about tracking the forward maturity date and concomitant fixing related demand, and guessing what central bank is likely to do.