Why is crypto suddenly talking about elections?

Over the past few days, we have been reading not only crypto channels, but also political and macro analysts. Surprisingly, many of them seem to be reaching roughly the same conclusion: until November, the White House has every reason to keep markets calm and the news cycle as positive as possible. The reason is the midterms — the U.S. midterm elections.

Midterms are held halfway through a presidential term. The president is not on the ballot, but the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate are. Right now, Republicans control both chambers, which makes it easier for the Trump administration to advance its agenda. But if Democrats win a majority in at least the House, it will become much harder for Trump to push his policies through.

Over the past few months, markets have gotten used to volatility under Trump: trade wars, harsh rhetoric, and geopolitical conflicts have repeatedly hit asset prices. But now the incentives may temporarily change. Ahead of the midterms, the administration needs a calmer news backdrop. That is why some analysts are linking the rapid de-escalation around Iran to election preparations.

If this hypothesis is correct, the next few months could also be a good window for MTONGA. At the very least, major announcements are always easier to make into a rising market. Now we are waiting for Pavel Durov to reveal the next step.

@thedailyton