StockEdge Morning Market Report | Thursday, 12 March 2026

The Nifty 50 closed at 23,867 — down 395 points (-1.63%). The market opened slightly lower and then steadily sold off throughout the session, with no significant recovery attempt.

Although the charts indicated it all beforehand, and 24,300 did act as the line of control - the trigger was a new escalation — three ships were hit by projectiles near Iran's coast. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, pushing Brent crude back above $92 per barrel.

Sector-wise, Auto was the hardest hit — down over 3% — followed by Private Banks, Financial Services, FMCG, and Realty. Oil & Gas, Energy, and Pharma managed to end in the green.

FIIs net sold ₹6,267 crore, continuing their exit from the markets. The futures open position on the index futures also reached over 2,00,000 contracts – net short.

India VIX closed at 21.06 — up 11.41% from the previous close of 18.91. U.S. markets were mostly flat. Gold steadied as safe-haven demand and crude-led inflation fears balanced out. GIFT Nifty is down 100 points — suggesting a weak opening.

Nifty
As expected, the index faced resistance at the 24,300 level – where bears stepped in. The index experienced a structured one-way fall during yesterday’s intraday session, opening at the high and closing at the lows of the day. RSI is well below 30 — indicating extreme oversold conditions — but in a trending bear market, oversold can persist. Other indicators, stochastics and MACD, still do not show any signs of bottoming out. Prices are trading well below both short-term and long-term moving averages. Immediate support levels are at 23,700–23,800. If bears break this level too, expect the index to test 23,200.

On the upside, 24,300 acts as a strong resistance. The trend remains firmly down, and the geopolitical situation is driven by news, so expect volatility.

Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed at 55,736 — down 2.13%. The index is among the weakest sectors, contributing significantly to the market decline. The panic low of 55,270 from Monday is the immediate support. Both Private Banks and PSU Banks remain under pressure.

Sector Watch

Strong (Relative): Metal, Pharma stocks
Weak: Auto, Private Banks, FMCG, Realty, IT

Conclusion
Two weeks of relentless selling, FII outflows exceeding ₹35,000 crore for March, Brent above $92, and VIX at 21 — all point to the prevailing downtrend. Avoid bottom fishing; let the markets signal a bottom formation. Be extremely selective, reducing capital in strong sectors and stocks. Be very cautious.

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