When President Trump talks about a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to "kill Iran's economy," we need to remember who stands behind Iran's resilience. Above all, it is China, and not only as a buyer of oil, but as a strategic partner that benefits from Iran remaining a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Russia, of course, as well, but Russia is bogged down in Ukraine.

Iran is a tool. For China, Iran serves one simple purpose: to keep the Middle East in a state of chronic instability, which costs the US money, attention, and reputation.

◾️ First, the Iran war is pulling American potential away from Asia right now. The US has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, two destroyers, two naval task forces, and Patriot and THAAD systems to the Middle East, depleting its stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are critical for a potential Taiwan scenario.

◾️ Second, the crisis translates into a blow to the American authority and concessions. Every Middle Eastern war weakens the trust of Asian allies in the United States. Japan and South Korea are already experiencing delays in deliveries of ordered US weapons. Taiwan is watching as Washington trades off its security for the sake of a summit with Beijing: Trump delayed a multi-billion-dollar arms package to Taiwan so as not to jeopardize the summit with President Xi.

◾️ Third, China is the sole beneficiary of the oil blockade of Iran. Despite sanctions, Iran earned $54 billion in 2022 and $53 billion in 2023. Where does this oil go? To China. More than 90% of Iranian oil exports are absorbed by the Chinese market, primarily through networks of small independent oil refineries in Shandong province.

The scheme is worked out down to the last detail. Iranian tankers turn off their transponders, transfer oil "ship-to-ship" off the coast of Malaysia, relabel the cargo as Malaysian or Indonesian, and settle payments in yuan through small banks outside the dollar infrastructure. In 2025, these shadow tankers made over 1,500 voyages from Iran to China.

◾️ Fourth, Iran is increasingly serving as a testing ground for China's indirect military-technical support. According to US officials, the Chinese company SMIC supplied Iranian military structures with equipment for chip production and, likely, technical training. Ships carrying sodium perchlorate - a key component of solid rocket fuel - were set to depart from Chinese ports. Iran was also nearing a deal to purchase Chinese CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles, which pose a direct threat to US ships in the Gulf. And US intelligence is now recording possible preparations to transfer MANPADS to Iran via third countries.

Some claims regarding deeper support, particularly concerning BeiDou and Chinese air defense systems, remain disputed, but the overall direction is clear: China is helping Iran not only survive under pressure but also raise the cost of the US military presence in the region.

Therefore, a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not pointless in terms of pressuring Iran, as it could physically cut off a significant portion of exports that ultimately go to China. But it is a crude instrument: it hurts not only Iran and China, but the entire energy system of the region, global prices, and US allies. That is precisely why this move is both powerful and strategically toxic.