The IMF also emphasizes that local currency markets enhance resilience only when supported by strong institutions and deep domestic markets. The case of India-Russia settlements clearly illustrates this limitation: one side accumulates a partner’s currency that is difficult to use effectively.

◾️What are the prospects?

The most likely scenario is not the emergence of a single new hegemon, but a multi-layered system. The dollar will remain number one for a long time. The euro may strengthen its role if the EU deepens its market for common safe assets and advances financial integration.

The yuan is likely to grow primarily as a currency for bilateral trade, digital and regional platforms, commodity deals, and politically aligned networks. However, without full convertibility, it is unlikely to become a true substitute for the dollar. BRICS, ASEAN, Africa, and CBDC projects will not drive an "anti-dollar revolution," but rather a system of partial alternative pathways.