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Pravda_Gerashchenko_en
@pravdaGerashchenko_en
08.04.2026 18:47
The implications of a war in Iran for Ukraine as of today (setting aside the emotions that are undoubtedly present):

◾️ Ukraine will benefit from stabilization and agreements. The sooner this happens, the better.
◾️ Agreements will lead to a drop in oil prices: Moscow will stop receiving extra money.
◾️ In any case, the arms race in the Middle East will intensify, and in this context, cooperation between Gulf countries and Ukrainian arms manufacturers is in their mutual interest.
◾️ The US has gained further military campaign experience with an understanding of resources, time, tactics, costs, and mistakes.
◾️ The role of drones and countering them in modern war has become clear, and Ukraine's experience here is extremely important.
◾️ The United States has seen that Russia is helping and will continue to help Iran with intelligence, weapons, and air defense systems in a war against the US. Russia will keep doing this as long as it has sufficient technology, infrastructure, and money.
◾️ Iran will predictably continue to arm itself and will ramp up (with the help of Russia and China) the production of Shahed drones, missiles, kamikaze boats, and MANPADS.
◾️ Russia is using and will continue to use the war in Ukraine as a training ground to teach dictatorships and terrorists from other countries the methods of modern warfare and sabotage.
◾️ It is both possible and necessary to reduce Russia's role in global destabilization by strengthening sanctions and destroying Russia's infrastructure and logistics.
◾️ The need for regional defense and strategic alliances has become evident, as well as Ukraine's importance for the security system of both Europe and the broader global context.
◾️ The problem with maritime law - or rather, its lack of regulation and vulnerability - has become apparent. The lack of security of sea routes and the issues of the "shadow fleet."

Most importantly, it is clear that the turbulence and realignment of the global order continue, and unfortunately, many more escalations, conflicts, and crises lie ahead before a new balance of power emerges.
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Pravda_Gerashchenko_en

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Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder.
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