Cbonds: Global Bond Market
@cbondsglobal
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The stable outlook balances higher availability of financing from official lenders with deep-seated challenges for economic growth. It also incorporates the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation and its improved capacity to pass reforms given its strong mandate in Ecuador's National Assembly, despite the country's history of rapid political changes and confrontation between the executive and the legislative branches.
Robust export earnings and diaspora remittances have strengthened Kenya's foreign exchange (FX) reserve position, helping to ease liquidity risks related to high external imbalances. Eurobond amortization will remain manageable over 2025-2027, supported by debt liability operations earlier this year, while monetary easing over the past year has helped lower domestic yields and stimulate private-sector credit growth.
The positive outlook reflects our expectation that stricter fiscal rules introduced in the new budget code, combined with a broader widening of the revenue base under the revised tax code, will support the government's efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation over the next two to three years, while preserving substantial liquid asset buffers.
Our decision to change the outlook to negative reflects the prospect of a sustained and material weakening in Austria's fiscal strength, which would reflect weaker fiscal policy effectiveness than we have previously assessed.
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