🔍 Catrix Daily | May 25, 2026

🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Neutral ➡️ | ETH: Bearish 📉

10-year real yield Z=+2.51 (100th pct, 26W high) — bonds keep paying their best in half a year. Risk assets compete from behind.

💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
Where are we in the cycle? Two gauges. MVRV: avg holder's profit/loss vs cost basis (>1 = winning, <1 = underwater). NUPL: how confident the crowd feels (negative = capitulation). When both flash low, you're closer to a floor than a top.

→ BTC: STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.042 — recent buyers just slipped underwater while overall NUPL stays in optimism. A split rarely seen outside accumulation phases. LTH added +142k BTC in 30D, scooping what STH dropped.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value): 0.91 — average holder 9.2% underwater. NUPL=-0.01, deep capitulation. Historically near floors, but ETF bled -221K ETH/30D. Price is cheap; demand isn't here.

Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz