🔍 Catrix Daily | May 18, 2026

🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bullish 📈 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉

Real yields still at 92nd percentile — TradFi gravity unchanged. Crypto fighting macro headwinds with internal demand.

💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
MVRV compares price to the average cost basis of all holders. Above 1 = aggregate profit, below 1 = aggregate loss. NUPL (Net Unrealized P/L) measures the same in normalized form. When STH (Short-Term Holders, <155 days) flip into loss, it's a capitulation signal — historically a bottom precursor.

→ BTC: MVRV: 1.43, F&G: 27 — BTC still 43% above its aggregate cost basis, but short-term buyers just flipped to loss (STH NUPL -0.038). Price sitting on STH cost basis at $78,280. Discount, but fearful.
→ ETH: MVRV: 0.918, NUPL: 0.002 — ETH trades 8.2% BELOW its average cost basis. Most holders underwater. Catrix reads COLD — historically the entry zone, but stress signals stack up.

Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz