This year, Russia’s crude-only production will decline slightly, but higher output of a light oil called condensate will offset that, bringing the total figure to 2024 levels, when output was 516 million tons, according to
estimates from Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting. That’s equivalent to 10.36 million barrels a day based on a 7.33 barrel-per-ton conversion rate, and compares with 10.28 million barrels a day last year.

“In theory, Russia’s potential to increase output is very high, but everything depends on the economy, OPEC+ agreements, as well as domestic constraints — the central bank’s key rate, personnel, technologies and operational efficiency — and external restrictions on marketing and delivering the nation’s crude to clients,” Dmitry Kasatkin, a managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, said. “Changes in any of these factors will alter
the actual production potential.”