Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Moscow-based Kasatkin Consultancy, told Upstream that despite the anticipated revenue decline, he does not expect any major strain on the Russian government’s financial position even if the price of the North Sea benchmark oil blend Brent falls below $60 per barrel later this year.
He cited Moscow's approval last year of a set of tax initiatives designed to help the government to increase state revenues from across the economy.
Kasatkin said that with the government's focus on implementing measures to raise its revenues from other sectors of the Russian economy, he does not expect any immediate proposals to raise current taxes and levies on the country’s oil and gas producers.
Lower hydrocarbon prices could also be mitigated by an anticipated decline in the value of the rouble against international currencies, Kasatkin added.
Lower commodity prices could tip Russia's small and mid-sized oil producers into losses later in 2026, Kasatkin said, but Russia's top five producers — Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft and Tatneft — are likely to remain in the black in 2026 given the size of their business and better cost optimisation options.