The development, testing, serial production and deployment of strategic weapons, as well as countermeasures, is a very long process, and one that is difficult to predict. In the context of confrontation between major powers and the collapse of arms control treaties, forecasting becomes even more difficult and forces us to assume increasingly negative scenarios as a baseline. This has already led to the launch of potentially excessive and highly resource-intensive programmes in various countries, while it is difficult to predict with any certainty what type of weapon will guarantee nuclear deterrence for decades to come.

Processes that are similar in nature, albeit different in scale, are underway in all nuclear powers. Overall, we are witnessing a classic case of a security dilemma – virtually every action taken by ‘player A’ to strengthen its security is perceived by players “B”, ‘C’ and others as a threat to their security, requiring an immediate response. The only way out of this situation seems to be through the restoration of arms control, including multilateral arms control, but at this stage, the military and political priorities of the major international players are not compatible with such decisions.