Post-America: The Mechanics of Change in Politics and Social Life of the United States

Personal news: I have written a book. It's about 3 things.

👉 History of ideas that once shaped America. How did they appear, evolve and acquired new meanings.

👉Stories of the people whose ideas and hands once built America (and continue to do so) - writers, thinkers, inventors, travelers, entrepreneurs, soldiers, diplomats, activists, and swindlers... How do they talk, what do they dream and care about, where do they travel, and what does it all tell us about American society & the state itself?

👉 Future of America that is tied to the future of the rest of the world just as much as its past and present are. Where is America currently going, where does it lead (push?) the rest of the world and what may happen next?

I hope readers find it interesting enough. To be totally frank, I believe it's awesome and everyone should own one .

You can preoder it here - it's the last day to do so.

Donald Trump's Board of Peace Charter: How to Run the World without Involving Orderlies

The Full text of the so called Board of Peace Charter (for some reason first published by Israeli newspaper).

Two immediate takeaways:

👉No mention of Gaza. Which is telling you the whole thing is not about Gaza.
👉 Trump decides who joins. You have to pay (A LOT) to join:

Article 2.2: Member State Responsibilities
(c) Each Member State shall serve a term of no more than three years from this Charter’s entry into force, subject to renewal by the Chairman. The three-year membership term shall not apply to Member States that contribute more than USD $1,000,000,000 in cash funds to the Board of Peace within the first year of the Charter’s entry into force.

👉Trump decides who stays and who gets kicked out

Article 2.3: Termination of Membership
Membership shall terminate upon the earlier of: (i) expiration of a three-year term, subject to Article 2.2(c) and renewal by the Chairman; (ii) withdrawal, consistent with Article 2.4; (iii) a removal decision by the Chairman, subject to a veto by a two-thirds majority of Member States: or (iv) dissolution of the Board of Peace pursuant to Chapter X. A Member State whose membership terminates shall also cease to be a Party to the Charter, but such State may be invited again to become a Member State, in accordance with Article 2.1.

👉Trump himself will have been staying "inaugural chairman" even after his US presidential powers terminate.

Article 3.2: Chairman
(a) Donald J. Trump shall serve as inaugural Chairman of the Board of Peace, and he shall separately serve as inaugural representative of the United States of America, subject only to the provisions of Chapter III.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

#TheArtOfTheDeal

Why America needs Venezuela in 3 pictures

Bosom Enemies, Bitter Friends: What Relationship Framework are Russia and the US Doomed to?

Here's my take on some of the key thorny issues in US-Russia relations. Some of them have fundamentally altered the very character of the relationship compared to the Cold War era.

The post-Cold War era is over. The world faces yet another historic inflection point. US-Russia relations are no longer central to global international relations, but when it comes to global security there is barely more important bilateral relationship in the world. The previous paradigm for the relationship has been exhausted, yet no new paradigm has yet emerged as of now. It may take some time – and a few election cycles in the US and a change of power in the Kremlin – to create a situation that is qualitatively different from what we are observing today.

Today, both the US and Russia are, for their own reasons, looking inward. The state of relations between Russia and the United States is now less determined by bilateral dynamics and more by domestic considerations and the overall outside dynamics – be these the crisis over Ukraine, the developments in the post-Soviet space, the Middle East or Asia-Pacific. This is the new normal in the relationship. No matter how serious or successful Russia’s Pivot to the East is, it is neither the replacement nor escape from Russia’s own strategy towards the West. If the systemic problems that continue to plague US-Russia relations are still in place, it will echo in the Asia-Pacific where Moscow and Washington may very soon discover that they have diverging interests as well.

Five years hence, we may well see a picture similar to what we are observing today: Russia and the US on opposite ends of almost every regional conflict; persistent divisions in some of the post-Soviet states; economic crises that have not brought the parties together. Looking at the relationship in a ten-year perspective, there is a chance that relations will have a more optimistic outlook. In fact, both countries face three of the same major challenges that may define them in the 21st century: how smoothly they navigate periods of elite change; what type of social contract and control system their governments establish with the so-called Big Tech; and their respective relationships with other influential regional powers (India, the EU, Türkiye, Iran, etc.). Russia and the US may still hold divergent values, but they may also emerge as the two big powers that understand each other’s red lines and do not interfere in each other’s internal affairs. If not, a decade from now, commentators will still be referring to the level of the US-Russian relations as being the lowest since the end of the Cold War.

🎙⚛️ Diplomacy in Turbulent Times | Rafael Mariano Grossi

Check out the new episode of the "Foreign Policy" podcast by @imi_mgimo.

In this episode, the podcast Editor-in-Chief Sofia Babkina sat down with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi to discuss many aspects of multilateral diplomacy in turbulent times.

Time Stamps:

00:52 Diplomacy as a true calling
03:05 Is multilateral diplomacy in decline?
04:53 IAEA flagship projects under the leadership of DG Grossi
07:26 Iranian issue
09:54 What can be said in response to critics of international institutions?
12:28 What does Russia bring to the IAEA table?
14:35 From Vienna to New York?
18:33 What’s the daily routine of the Head of the IAEA?
21:01 What makes DG Grossi believe in diplomacy and humanity?
23:03 Q&A surprise

Listen to the podcast:

Apple Podcasts | Яндекс.Музыка | Telegram-плеер | ВКонтакте | Mave

How European leaders seek to "Bidenize" Trump?

As the Europeans and Zelensky seek to rematch the Alaska summit results and "Bidenize" Trump into continuing to support Ukraine, I sat down with Rick Sanchez of @rtnews to talk over what comes next for the conflict and US-Russia relations. Click here for the full interview.

How Decades of Folly Led to War in Ukraine

As the crisis in Ukraine enters its arguably most interesting diplomatic play, it's time to make sense of why Donald Trump has every reason to end it. A good friend and colleague Michael Reynolds of Princeton University nails it on the head in his latest take for Compact.

Far from delivering the “great prize” of Ukraine to the West, the Euromaidan tore the country apart as the passions ignited by the protests and stoked by the likes of Nuland and McCain polarized and radicalized Ukraine’s population. This outcome was entirely predictable. Ukraine had always been a divided society and fragile state. What is more, Washington’s recklessness had even reversed the domino theory of democratization. Far from undermining Putin, the Euromaidan had consolidated support for him where it counted most: at home and in eastern Ukraine.

Washington’s second cardinal strategic error was that it had gotten America embroiled in a struggle of peripheral interest to it but of vital interest to its rival, Moscow. Even Barack Obama acknowledged this reality: Because Ukraine was a core interest for Russia but not for the United States, Washington would inevitably face significant disadvantages there.

Putin-Trump Summit in Alaska: What to Watch?

In the run-up to the US-Russia talks in Alaska I sat down with the Stimson Center,a Washington-based think tank, to talk through the issues that will potentially be discussed by the two presidents. Have a listen.

This is how trends in global trade have changed over the years. China filled in the void left by the EU, US largely remains where it was.

Briefly on American decision making vis-a-vis Iran

Podcast: What Does Russia Want?

Today's attack on parts of Russia's nuclear triad are astonishing. But what's Moscow's endgame in the conflict eventually?
I sat down with Peter Slezkine of the Stimson Center to talk it all over. Have a listen.

Time Stamps:
01:08 Evaluate the Russia-Ukraine talks and the Trump-Putin phone call
03:17 Why does Russia oppose an immediate ceasefire?
08:08 What are Russia’s core objectives?
10:54 What kind of military caps does the Kremlin want to put on Kyiv?
13:56 Three scenarios for US policy
19:43 Russian and Chinese perspectives on Europe
23:05 Russia as a conservative “civilization-state”
26:00 A positive US-Russia bilateral agenda
35:27 How long will the Trump movement last?
42:40 Ukraine v US-Russia normalization
45:51 What kind of Europe does Russia want?
51:46 Predictions for the summer

In case you read Italian (or use Google translator at a professional level) here's my extended interview to a chief Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Russia's attitude towards President Trump drive towards peace efforts and possible deal between Moscow and Washington.

DISCLAIMER: The attribution to me as a "counselor of the Kremlin" is a pure fantasy of the editors.

This administration is indeed moving very fast on things but such is the demand of modern times. I’d, however, argue there hasn’t been a swift substantive turn in US-Russia relations just yet. A mount of problems that have accumulated over the past few years is still there. The US, despite President Trump claims to forge a peace deal, is still a de facto party to the conflict since it helps Ukraine militarily, intelligence-wise and provides financial aid. But the very attitude and the very approach on the US side has changed, at least as far as the administration is concerned. This is very much appreciated in Moscow and seen within policy-making community as an opportunity to strive for something bigger.

Russia is not going to back down on its key security interests in Ukraine or elsewhere. Neither will the United States.

That said, there’s a recognition that the current situation provides a certain window of opportunity that may not last long. For instance, it’s hard to fathom the composition of US politics in 18 months from now after the midterms and later after 2028. This creates a situation where on the one hand there is reasonable willingness on the side of Moscow to get as many good things done with the Trump administration as possible; on the other – makes Russia carefully consider each proposal coming from the U.S., weight in its pros and cons, time limits, political constraints. Russia is not desperate to agree to everything simply out of fear to lose the opportunity to improve relations with the U.S. – after all, it’s a seasoned geopolitical player that can’t afford to trade its security interests for goodies.

But there’s a recognition that we have a genuine chance to start a fresh page with the US precisely because of the new thinking in Washington. History is a tough teacher and it doesn’t provide too many chances to correct the course. But when it does, these chances better be embraced.

The new Pope is from the US. So what?

The new Pope is an interesting choice but the one that is not totally unexpected given the amount of effort put behind his election. including, likely, by the Trump administration. The number of Catholics in this administration as well as the importance than some prominent "Trump Catholics" like JD Vance give to the relationship with the Catholic world has made it clear this issue cannot be left ungoverned.

Here's why it may be importance:

👉 The struggle for the agenda is globally on the increase. It is politically advantageous for the Trump administration to have powerful instruments and institutions like the large Christian churches, if not under its control, then at least as allies.
👉 America's moral leadership is on the decline and needs a reboot. Biden too understood this, but he saw his formula for a reboot through the lens of "democracies" vs "autocracies". Trump has a different approach: he is trying to achieve a reboot through the so-called revolution of common sense, which he often talks about. This approach suggests that the theme of the US as a defender of conservative values ​​plays an important role both within America and in foreign policy.
👉Some American politicians argue that they were "reborn" as individuals by turning to God. Hence the leitmotif of their political actions: we rebooted ourselves and in this way we will help America go through its own renewal including through visible resets with major church institutions.
👉This process is already acquiring its own symbolism, is being "sacralized". When today the public face of the White house press service prays before each appearance before the press, quotes the Bible on her social networks, the public gets the feeling of being present at a session of "political exorcism" - it was only yesterday that the Democratic administration consisted of representatives of the LGBT community, and today such a turn of events is happening before our eyes..
👉 Efforts to establish ties with Catholic denominations and to strengthen themselves within Protestant ones are an important resource in the arsenal of "making America great again," as this administration sees it.

It takes a little time to comprehend what happened, to understand the real involvement of the US in this decision (it could be the other way around - the Vatican's own interest in the "renewed US" which may give both an opportunity to reset the agenda and make more money) and to consider the figure of the Pope himself. He has an interesting order - the Augustinians.

War or thaw? The Future of US-Russia Relations

Here's my extended interview on the past, present and future of US-Russia relations.

👉What to make of Donald Trump’s peace-making efforts so far?
👉What is ultimately driving US policies under the new administration?
👉Will there be any critical point when the Ukrainians, as much as they may hate Russia, would be able to rationally assess their options and self-interests?
👉Given all the Russian grievances about how the West has historically deceived Russia, why the Kremlin is investing time and effort into this opportunity?
👉Why would Russia be interested seeing more the U.S. presence in the Arctic?
👉 Would US under Trump benefit from formally recognizing Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine to ease its own intentions at redrawing the map?
👉 Do Russia, US have a common interest in defending Christians in the MIddle East?

I seek to provide answers (aka informed opinion) to all of those questions. Have a listen.

ICYM: A new issue of @ru_global is fully available online

🪇 “It Takes Two”

Check it out:
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/issues/2025/2/