Kate Smith's Rent
@katesmithrent
TON grows, numbers fall, TON falls, numbers grow. Have you heard this in chats too?
Why do people think so and is it really so? Let's figure it out.
In order to understand the relationship between the price of numbers in TON and the TON price in $, we will use the concept of correlation, where the value 1 is a perfect positive correlation (the value A changes strictly proportionally to the value B), -1 is a perfect negative correlation (the value A changes inversely proportionally to the value B) and the value 0, which corresponds to the absence of correlation.
Correlation does not show the dependence of the value A on B and vice versa, but shows that changes in the values of one or more of these values accompany a systematic change in the values of another value.
In the first attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in TON (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).
In the second attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in $ (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).
As you can see, over short periods of time (spring-summer 2023) there was indeed a negative correlation between TON price in $ and Floor Price (both in $ and TON) up to a value of 0.9, which corresponds to a very strong connection (not dependence). But, starting in the autumn of 2023, both correlations began to grow. Now the correlation value of the Floor Price in TON to the TON price in $ (red graph) is -0.03, which corresponds to a very weak negative connection (not dependence), and the correlation graph of the Floor Price in $ to the TON price in $ (orange graph) is 0.44, which corresponds to a moderate positive connection (not dependence), in this case, indirectly shows that the numbers are growing in $ and in TON (stronger in $) regardless of the TON price.
Why is there such a difference? Because over a long period of time, numbers grow in TON, and the fact that TON grows in $ is already a pleasant bonus.
Then why do so many people stubbornly claim: TON grows, numbers fall, TON falls, numbers grow? Because most people think in very short frames (no more than 3 months). Talking about a very strong dependence of Floor-TON Price acts as a psychological defense for those who had bought numbers for 380 TON and sold them during the correction for 250 TON or, even worse, for 100 TON in the spring of 2024. Also, people also use such thoughts to protect themselves from an overwhelming feeling of FOMO when they did not buy numbers for 9 TON in December 2022.
A similar situation is observed this time. People who bought numbers in June 2025 on the hype for 800-900+ TON will be forced to sell numbers for 200-300 TON this autumn-winter in order to get into another hype project (TON DNS?).
Mathematics is always ahead of emotions and subjectivity.
#roadto10k
Why do people think so and is it really so? Let's figure it out.
In order to understand the relationship between the price of numbers in TON and the TON price in $, we will use the concept of correlation, where the value 1 is a perfect positive correlation (the value A changes strictly proportionally to the value B), -1 is a perfect negative correlation (the value A changes inversely proportionally to the value B) and the value 0, which corresponds to the absence of correlation.
Correlation does not show the dependence of the value A on B and vice versa, but shows that changes in the values of one or more of these values accompany a systematic change in the values of another value.
In the first attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in TON (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).
In the second attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in $ (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).
As you can see, over short periods of time (spring-summer 2023) there was indeed a negative correlation between TON price in $ and Floor Price (both in $ and TON) up to a value of 0.9, which corresponds to a very strong connection (not dependence). But, starting in the autumn of 2023, both correlations began to grow. Now the correlation value of the Floor Price in TON to the TON price in $ (red graph) is -0.03, which corresponds to a very weak negative connection (not dependence), and the correlation graph of the Floor Price in $ to the TON price in $ (orange graph) is 0.44, which corresponds to a moderate positive connection (not dependence), in this case, indirectly shows that the numbers are growing in $ and in TON (stronger in $) regardless of the TON price.
Why is there such a difference? Because over a long period of time, numbers grow in TON, and the fact that TON grows in $ is already a pleasant bonus.
Then why do so many people stubbornly claim: TON grows, numbers fall, TON falls, numbers grow? Because most people think in very short frames (no more than 3 months). Talking about a very strong dependence of Floor-TON Price acts as a psychological defense for those who had bought numbers for 380 TON and sold them during the correction for 250 TON or, even worse, for 100 TON in the spring of 2024. Also, people also use such thoughts to protect themselves from an overwhelming feeling of FOMO when they did not buy numbers for 9 TON in December 2022.
A similar situation is observed this time. People who bought numbers in June 2025 on the hype for 800-900+ TON will be forced to sell numbers for 200-300 TON this autumn-winter in order to get into another hype project (TON DNS?).
Mathematics is always ahead of emotions and subjectivity.
#roadto10k
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